Since 1999, the global financial sector targeting micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) has faced over-indebtedness (OID) crises. In Kinshasa, similar challenges exist, including weak governance, a lack of regulation, and intense competition among financial institutions (FIs). To assess the risk of an emerging OID crisis, the Humboldt University’s Centre for Rural Development conducted a study commissioned by KfW Entwicklungsbank and Advans Banque Congo. The study evaluates the risk of OID in Kinshasa, identifies contributing factors, and offers recommendations for managing OID. The paper contributes to the debate on financial inclusion and poverty reduction, exploring how FIs’ expansion and the risks of OID intersect. The study developed an OID index with 19 early-warning indicators, assessing macroeconomic, sectorial, and institutional factors. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, including interviews with borrowers, loan officers, and stakeholders, was used. The study found a high OID risk in Kinshasa (6.04 out of 10), primarily due to the lack of a functioning credit information system, increased competition among FIs, and inflexible loan practices. Recommendations include improving credit information systems, developing consumer protection norms, increasing financial literacy, and reforming FIs’ internal practices. The Congolese Central Bank has initiated actions to improve credit portfolio management, but further steps are needed to reduce OID risk and ensure sustainable financial sector development.